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Huya Winter Invitational 2021 · BO1
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 0:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Asterwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Phoenix
Phoenix
Boomy · 7 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Bok · 6 games
33%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 6 games
83%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 6 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bok · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
20%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Yowe · 5 games
20%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
40%

Team Aster

Lich
Lichsignature
LaNm · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 11 games
45%
Windranger
Windranger
BoBoKa · 11 games
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
White丶Album · 10 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 9 games
67%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Monet · 9 games
44%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Xxs · 8 games
50%
Chen
Chensignature
LaNm · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
368 picks · 544 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
344 picks · 257 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
339 picks · 204 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
324 picks · 719 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
244 picks · 740 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
242 picks · 156 bans
52%
Io
Io
240 picks · 570 bans
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
235 picks · 377 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)15% vs 28%
Hero pool strength54% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:28
TNC Predator 37%Team Aster 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckYowe
49% · 313 games47% · 200 games
LinaOri
Lina
Kunkka
KunkkaYoungGodLevi
50% · 176 games51% · 129 games
RazorMonet
Razor
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyerxiaoyu154
56% · 103 games49% · 403 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPlayHard
54% · 162 games47% · 141 game
IoBoBoKa
Io
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFebby
41% · 257 games54% · 138 games
BaneFantasy
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 74%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1