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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorwin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team SMGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
kpii · 12 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 12 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Armel · 12 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Tims · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
Tims · 11 games
36%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 11 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Armel · 8 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Boomy · 8 games
50%

Team SMG

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 8 games
38%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
kpii · 8 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 7 games
43%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
AhFu · 7 games
29%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
ninjaboogie · 6 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
AhFu · 6 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
MidOne · 5 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
AhFu · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
446 picks · 188 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 578 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 207 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
368 picks · 867 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
334 picks · 306 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
325 picks · 240 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
294 picks · 399 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
291 picks · 417 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:13
TNC Predator 61%Team SMG 39%
The model gave 61% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 38:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreGabbi
49% · 60 games48% · 67 games
AxeMidOne
Axe
Broodmother
BroodmotherBok
52% · 33 games47% · 123 games
Death ProphetMoon
Death Prophet
Kunkka
KunkkaArmel
51% · 38 games52% · 102 games
Dragon Knightkpii
Dragon Knight
Phoenix
PhoenixBoomy
54% · 163 games49% · 89 games
LinaAhFu
Lina
Lion
LionTims
48% · 209 games51% · 122 games
Ancient ApparitionRoddgeee
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed18:30
TNC Predator 61%Team SMG 39%
The model gave 61% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by Team SMG in 30:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightArmel
55% · 75 games54% · 72 games
MedusaMidOne
Medusa
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidGabbi
47% · 66 games45% · 34 games
RikiMoon
Riki
Viper
ViperBok
48% · 51 game53% · 25 games
Brewmasterkpii
Brewmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixBoomy
50% · 129 games48% · 103 games
EnchantressAhFu
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskTims
48% · 103 games51% · 190 games
LionRoddgeee
Lion
Game 3prediction correct31:12
TNC Predator 63%Team SMG 37%
The model gave 63% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeGabbi
57% · 68 games51% · 110 games
MedusaMidOne
Medusa
Puck
PuckArmel
56% · 273 games47% · 128 games
LeshracMoon
Leshrac
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeTims
55% · 194 games36% · 101 game
Bloodseekerkpii
Bloodseeker
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBok
55% · 102 games51% · 314 games
LionRoddgeee
Lion
Phoenix
PhoenixBoomy
48% · 155 games44% · 139 games
TuskAhFu
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 70%
Series resultTNC Predator 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3