The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNC Predator
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 21 game
Faceless Voidsignature
Palos · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gabbi · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Gabbi · 16 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Abed · 16 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Gabbi · 15 games
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 13 games
Yangon Galacticos
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
443 picks · 682 bans
Gyrocopter
397 picks · 425 bans
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 522 bans
Crystal Maiden
392 picks · 180 bans
Rubick
338 picks · 169 bans
Pangolier
335 picks · 632 bans
Batrider
333 picks · 540 bans
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 785 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% TNC Predator
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total68% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:12
TNC Predator 59%Yangon Galacticos 41%
The model gave 59% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 37:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinkerYowe
Troll WarlordKsh
Chaos KnightPalos
LeshracYoung PH
Witch DoctorKuku
TinyJing
Game 2prediction correct36:17
TNC Predator 60%Yangon Galacticos 40%
The model gave 60% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 27:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyPalos
Dragon KnightYoung PH
Ember SpiritYowe
Faceless VoidKsh
WeaverJing
PhoenixKuku
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 68%
Series resultTNC Predator 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2