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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4Pirateswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNL DOTA

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
33%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Fernans · 2 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Norma · 2 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 2 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
100%
Marci
Marci
yowaai · 2 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 2 games
100%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
dualrazee · 2 games
50%

4Pirates

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 25 games
56%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
68%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 19 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ariel · 18 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 17 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 15 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 15 games
47%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
521 picks · 602 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
469 picks · 237 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
459 picks · 433 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
371 picks · 770 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 513 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
342 picks · 790 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
330 picks · 298 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
316 picks · 350 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 76%
Hero pool strength51% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:22
TNL DOTA 39%4Pirates 61%
The model gave 61% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 45:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenyowaai
51% · 140 games50% · 186 games
WeaverOtaker
Weaver
Pangolier
Pangolierdualrazee
49% · 383 games48% · 136 games
SniperNattyNarwhal
Sniper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
51% · 183 games47% · 298 games
Batriderariel
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
49% · 283 games45% · 91 game
Abaddonмистер мораль
Abaddon
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionflacko
63% · 95 games49% · 373 games
TuskPERDAN4IK
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct12:27
TNL DOTA 39%4Pirates 61%
The model gave 61% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 26:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomyowaai
52% · 249 games50% · 165 games
Templar AssassinOtaker
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
57% · 366 games47% · 54 games
Death ProphetNattyNarwhal
Death Prophet
Magnus
MagnusNorma
58% · 201 game38% · 452 games
Pangolierмистер мораль
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
50% · 275 games50% · 154 games
Nature's Prophetariel
Nature's Prophet
Silencer
Silencerflacko
53% · 121 game46% · 387 games
TuskPERDAN4IK
Tusk
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 72%
Series result4Pirates 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2