The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAloss 1:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aim Possiblewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNL DOTA
Dark Seeroften banned
Norma · 2 games
Marcioften banned
yowaai · 2 games
Batrider
dualrazee · 1 game
Chaos Knight
Fernans · 1 game
Chen
flacko · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Iooften banned
flacko · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 1 game
Aim Possible
Warlock
Aidar · 3 games
Jakiro
Aidar · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
rubikon155 · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Aidar · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
rubikon155 · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
480 picks · 457 bans
Tiny
453 picks · 537 bans
Ringmaster
433 picks · 213 bans
Terrorblade
336 picks · 608 bans
Storm Spirit
300 picks · 422 bans
Ancient Apparition
290 picks · 627 bans
Tusk
285 picks · 200 bans
Windranger
271 picks · 78 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength59% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:18
TNL DOTA 68%Aim Possible 32%
The model gave 68% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 51:08.
Game 2prediction missed29:40
TNL DOTA 68%Aim Possible 32%
The model gave 68% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Aim Possible in 34:24.
Game 3prediction missed25:26
TNL DOTA 68%Aim Possible 32%
The model gave 68% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Aim Possible in 50:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 68%
Series resultAim Possible 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3