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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Kalmychatawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNL DOTA

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 18 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 17 games
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 13 games
62%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 12 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 10 games
70%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 10 games
40%

Kalmychata

Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 12 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 11 games
73%
Axe
Axeoften banned
meLes · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
40%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
not me · 9 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Corrupted · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Gilgir · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
585 picks · 590 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
389 picks · 383 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
381 picks · 414 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
358 picks · 211 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 508 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
335 picks · 714 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
321 picks · 829 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
316 picks · 635 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:18
TNL DOTA 59%Kalmychata 41%
The model gave 59% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 54:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursayowaai
59% · 95 games50% · 170 games
MedusaWoE
Medusa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fienddualrazee
47% · 155 games45% · 162 games
Queen of PainEthereal
Queen of Pain
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNorma
49% · 296 games49% · 310 games
PangolierAnkou
Pangolier
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenflacko
55% · 128 games52% · 154 games
Shadow Demonraregods
Shadow Demon
Windranger
WindrangerFernans
47% · 122 games
Game 2prediction missed9:28
TNL DOTA 59%Kalmychata 41%
The model gave 59% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 26:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckdualrazee
43% · 234 games52% · 174 games
Void SpiritWoE
Void Spirit
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeyowaai
43% · 132 games55% · 270 games
Monkey KingEthereal
Monkey King
Mars
MarsNorma
54% · 103 games48% · 225 games
DawnbreakerAnkou
Dawnbreaker
Undying
Undyingflacko
47% · 77 games55% · 78 games
Dazzleraregods
Dazzle
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
50% · 201 game
Game 3prediction missed11:35
TNL DOTA 58%Kalmychata 42%
The model gave 58% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 37:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
54% · 135 games53% · 86 games
Void SpiritWoE
Void Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNorma
51% · 56 games50% · 107 games
LeshracEthereal
Leshrac
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeyowaai
45% · 198 games45% · 178 games
AbaddonAnkou
Abaddon
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
45% · 136 games55% · 186 games
Ringmasterraregods
Ringmaster
Dazzle
Dazzleflacko
58% · 32 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 71%
Series resultKalmychata 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3