European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAloss 1:3series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Level UPwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNL DOTA
Dark Willow
Fernans · 9 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 8 games
Tusk
flacko · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Norma · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Norma · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Fernans · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
Level UP
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 7 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 5 games
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 5 games
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 5 games
Earthshaker
xsvampire · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
MaTson · 4 games
Leshrac
Atoufix · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
4IVAN · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
528 picks · 563 bans
Ringmaster
460 picks · 233 bans
Shadow Shaman
438 picks · 484 bans
Jakiro
409 picks · 323 bans
Terrorblade
384 picks · 823 bans
Tusk
378 picks · 362 bans
Storm Spirit
362 picks · 530 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 533 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct54:28
TNL DOTA 57%Level UP 43%
The model gave 57% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 50:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenyowaai
Dragon Knightrubikon155
Kunkkadualrazee
EarthshakerMaTson
MagnusNorma
Dawnbreakerkrol9ash
Naga Sirenflacko
EnchantressPonlo
Dark WillowFernans
Shadow ShamanAtoufix
Game 2prediction missed19:16
TNL DOTA 57%Level UP 43%
The model gave 57% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Level UP in 35:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkkadualrazee
Medusarubikon155
Ursayowaai
Queen of PainMaTson
DoomNorma
Centaur Warrunnerkrol9ash
Warlockflacko
MarciAtoufix
Dark WillowFernans
PhoenixPonlo
Game 3prediction missed
TNL DOTA 62%Level UP 38%
The model gave 62% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Level UP.
Game 4prediction missed11:49
TNL DOTA 56%Level UP 44%
The model gave 56% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Level UP in 29:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fienddualrazee
Ursarubikon155
Nature's Prophetyowaai
TinyMaTson
BeastmasterNorma
Dawnbreakerkrol9ash
BatriderFernans
LeshracAtoufix
Marciflacko
MiranaPonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 62%
Series resultLevel UP 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4