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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAloss 1:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 16 games
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
47%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 15 games
33%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 9 games
78%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
44%

Level UP

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 13 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 9 games
44%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Atoufix · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 8 games
63%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 7 games
43%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Ponlo · 7 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
14%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
536 picks · 560 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 419 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
365 picks · 389 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 516 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
324 picks · 716 bans
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 197 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
313 picks · 593 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
300 picks · 440 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
TNL DOTA 75%Level UP 25%
The model gave 75% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA.
Game 2prediction missed
TNL DOTA 75%Level UP 25%
The model gave 75% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Level UP.
Game 3prediction missed
TNL DOTA 75%Level UP 25%
The model gave 75% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Level UP.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 75%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3