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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Fernans · 15 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
47%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 14 games
36%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 11 games
64%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
flacko · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
dualrazee · 8 games
75%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Norma · 8 games
75%

MOUZ

Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 13 games
46%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
xsvampire · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 11 games
27%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Fly · 11 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 10 games
20%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
xsvampire · 10 games
30%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
501 picks · 536 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
426 picks · 439 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 360 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 510 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
331 picks · 713 bans
47%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
321 picks · 187 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
301 picks · 565 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
301 picks · 444 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 35%
Hero pool strength58% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
TNL DOTA 31%MOUZ 69%
The model gave 69% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Game 2prediction correct
TNL DOTA 31%MOUZ 69%
The model gave 69% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 69%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2