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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNL DOTA

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 24 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 23 games
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 23 games
35%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 18 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 18 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 14 games
64%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
flacko · 13 games
92%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
yowaai · 13 games
54%

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 23 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 17 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Covisnine · 15 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 14 games
71%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 13 games
62%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
289 picks · 705 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 177 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
258 picks · 237 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
255 picks · 658 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
248 picks · 250 bans
45%
Pugna
Pugna
245 picks · 257 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
244 picks · 103 bans
48%
Marci
Marci
244 picks · 628 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total55% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:24
TNL DOTA 51%Nemiga Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 42:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusayowaai
49% · 147 games51% · 233 games
Templar Assassinbashka
Templar Assassin
Puck
Puckdualrazee
51% · 301 game51% · 109 games
SlardarCovisnine
Slardar
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
47% · 97 games54% · 191 game
Void Spirityoung G
Void Spirit
Tusk
Tuskflacko
44% · 243 games52% · 379 games
Batriderxsvampire
Batrider
Enchantress
EnchantressFernans
49% · 124 games
Game 2prediction correct25:16
TNL DOTA 53%Nemiga Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 50:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordyowaai
62% · 55 games47% · 189 games
Terrorbladebashka
Terrorblade
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fienddualrazee
52% · 143 games52% · 74 games
Void Spirityoung G
Void Spirit
Magnus
MagnusNorma
58% · 151 game45% · 149 games
MarciCovisnine
Marci
Pugna
Pugnaflacko
52% · 127 games41% · 159 games
Snapfirexsvampire
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
47% · 95 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 55%
Series resultTNL DOTA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2