CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO5
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAloss 1:3series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:3
OGwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNL DOTA
Dark Willow
Fernans · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 21 game
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 20 games
Marcisignature
Fernans · 18 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
Batridersignature
Fernans · 13 games
Undyingoften banned
flacko · 13 games
Doomsignature
yowaai · 12 games
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
Tiny
Stormstormer · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 16 games
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 14 games
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 13 games
Tuskoften banned
Daze · 12 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
523 picks · 556 bans
Dark Willow
385 picks · 230 bans
Tusk
364 picks · 416 bans
Puck
337 picks · 866 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 481 bans
Tiny
321 picks · 303 bans
Batrider
318 picks · 899 bans
Nature's Prophet
291 picks · 644 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 47%
Hero pool strength60% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:37
TNL DOTA 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 35:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Painyowaai
SniperStormstormer
Huskardualrazee
Ember SpiritShad
DazzleNorma
PangolierMikSa`
Disruptorflacko
PhoenixLelis
TuskFernans
BatriderDaze
Game 2prediction correct28:39
TNL DOTA 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 43:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordyowaai
Templar AssassinShad
Sand Kingdualrazee
TinyStormstormer
PangolierNorma
SlardarMikSa`
Warlockflacko
PugnaLelis
SilencerFernans
Dark WillowDaze
Game 3prediction missed42:24
TNL DOTA 50%OG 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 43:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetyowaai
TimbersawMikSa`
Invokerdualrazee
DoomShad
MagnusNorma
TinyStormstormer
Naga Sirenflacko
SnapfireDaze
Dark WillowFernans
DisruptorLelis
Game 4prediction correct13:34
TNL DOTA 50%OG 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladeyowaai
Shadow FiendShad
Void Spiritdualrazee
InvokerStormstormer
BeastmasterNorma
AxeMikSa`
BatriderFernans
Elder TitanLelis
Warlockflacko
Shadow DemonDaze
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 54%
Series resultOG 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4