CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAwin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNL DOTA
Chaos Knight
Fernans · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Norma · 2 games
Marcioften banned
yowaai · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Centaur Warrunner
Norma · 1 game
Chen
flacko · 1 game
Disruptor
flacko · 1 game
Winter Bear
Phoenix
Delight · 13 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 6 games
Nyx Assassin
Delight · 5 games
Shadow Demon
Delight · 4 games
Clinkz
Delight · 3 games
Lion
Delight · 3 games
Bounty Hunter
Delight · 2 games
Clockwerk
jAMES · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
521 picks · 591 bans
Jakiro
479 picks · 437 bans
Ringmaster
469 picks · 236 bans
Terrorblade
369 picks · 761 bans
Storm Spirit
340 picks · 510 bans
Ancient Apparition
337 picks · 778 bans
Tusk
322 picks · 290 bans
Windranger
306 picks · 93 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
TNL DOTA 58%Winter Bear 42%
The model gave 58% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA.
Game 2prediction correct
TNL DOTA 58%Winter Bear 42%
The model gave 58% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 58%
Series resultTNL DOTA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2