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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 17 games
53%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 16 games
31%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
47%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 10 games
40%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Norma · 10 games
40%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 26 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 23 games
39%
Tiny
Tiny
Stojkov · 23 games
39%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 22 games
55%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
32%
Warlock
Warlock
LeBronDota · 22 games
41%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
582 picks · 587 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
394 picks · 393 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 403 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
346 picks · 208 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 505 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
329 picks · 707 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
318 picks · 614 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 802 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total65% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
TNL DOTA 35%Zero Tenacity 65%
The model gave 65% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 2prediction missed
TNL DOTA 35%Zero Tenacity 65%
The model gave 65% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by TNL DOTA.
Game 3prediction correct
TNL DOTA 35%Zero Tenacity 65%
The model gave 65% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 65%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3