PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTToLightwin 2:0
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HSHong shi zhang zuiloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ToLight
Snapfire
sheep · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
sheep · 1 game
Hoodwink
sheep · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
sheep · 1 game
Hong shi zhang zui
Snapfiresignature
TK · 11 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BEYOND · 7 games
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 7 games
Hoodwink
TK · 7 games
Lycanoften banned
BEYOND · 7 games
Ursaoften banned
lou · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 4 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Undyne_ · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
437 picks · 408 bans
Snapfire
421 picks · 214 bans
Puck
347 picks · 917 bans
Pugna
325 picks · 367 bans
Warlock
289 picks · 143 bans
Tusk
286 picks · 224 bans
Batrider
279 picks · 669 bans
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 848 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Hong shi zhang zui
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Hong shi zhang zui
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
ToLight 20%Hong shi zhang zui 80%
The model gave 80% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by ToLight.
Game 2prediction missed
ToLight 20%Hong shi zhang zui 80%
The model gave 80% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by ToLight.
Model check result
Model favoriteHong shi zhang zui · 80%
Series resultToLight 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2