The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTToLightloss 1:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TEAM TURTLEwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ToLight
Chenoften banned
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Mirana
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
TEAM TURTLE
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 732 bans
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 628 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 405 bans
Batrider
405 picks · 755 bans
Rubick
386 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 1035 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 745 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% TEAM TURTLE
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% TEAM TURTLE
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
ToLight 22%TEAM TURTLE 78%
The model gave 78% on TEAM TURTLE — the game was taken by TEAM TURTLE.
Game 2prediction missed
ToLight 22%TEAM TURTLE 78%
The model gave 78% on TEAM TURTLE — the game was taken by ToLight.
Game 3prediction correct
ToLight 22%TEAM TURTLE 78%
The model gave 78% on TEAM TURTLE — the game was taken by TEAM TURTLE.
Model check result
Model favoriteTEAM TURTLE · 78%
Series resultTEAM TURTLE 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3