The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTToLightwin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
UUnderdogloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ToLight
Chenoften banned
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Mirana
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Underdog
Chaos Knightoften banned
Q7 · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Q7 · 1 game
Vengeful Spirit
Q7 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 743 bans
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 626 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 410 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 746 bans
Rubick
379 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1030 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 732 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Underdog
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Underdog
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
ToLight 47%Underdog 53%
The model gave 53% on Underdog — the game was taken by ToLight.
Game 2prediction correct22:15
ToLight 50%Underdog 50%
The model gave 50% on ToLight — the game was taken by ToLight in 36:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaGodKing
ClinkzQ7
Model check result
Model favoriteUnderdog · 53%
Series resultToLight 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2