Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTTOPREDAwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
WWhyTryloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TOPREDA
No games played over 6 months.
WhyTry
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
398 picks · 898 bans
Void Spirit
370 picks · 543 bans
Mars
322 picks · 584 bans
Death Prophet
288 picks · 531 bans
Earth Spirit
285 picks · 251 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 165 bans
Wraith King
240 picks · 391 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 523 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% TOPREDA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% TOPREDA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:36
TOPREDA 65%WhyTry 35%
The model gave 65% on TOPREDA — the game was taken by WhyTry in 37:09.
Game 2prediction correct14:31
TOPREDA 65%WhyTry 35%
The model gave 65% on TOPREDA — the game was taken by TOPREDA in 35:34.
Game 3prediction correct41:17
TOPREDA 65%WhyTry 35%
The model gave 65% on TOPREDA — the game was taken by TOPREDA in 35:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteTOPREDA · 65%
Series resultTOPREDA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3