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RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2
result vs prediction
TopTabloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TopTab

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Shergarat · 1 game
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
smN · 1 game
100%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
Shergarat · 1 game
0%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
smN · 1 game
0%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 11 games
36%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
dualrazee · 7 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 7 games
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 7 games
14%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
358 picks · 349 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
356 picks · 402 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
342 picks · 257 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
317 picks · 509 bans
47%
Sven
Sven
295 picks · 306 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
281 picks · 253 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
273 picks · 360 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
267 picks · 471 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 26%
Hero pool strength60% TopTab
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:33
TopTab 47%Dragon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomShergarat
50% · 246 games55% · 64 games
Medusalil pleb
Medusa
Omniknight
OmniknightsmN
60% · 39 games50% · 39 games
Sniperdualrazee
Sniper
48% · 37 games
Sand KingInfernal
Sand King
36% · 78 games
Rubickarmageddon
Rubick
49% · 67 games
EnchantressMary_y
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct26:32
TopTab 45%Dragon Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 41:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherShergarat
50% · 47 games57% · 29 games
Lunalil pleb
Luna
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorsmN
51% · 141 game42% · 52 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
46% · 48 games
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Centaur Warrunner
40% · 14 games
MarciMary_y
Marci
58% · 45 games
Shadow Demonarmageddon
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 60%
Series resultDragon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2