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RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2
result vs prediction
TopTabloss 1:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Night Pulseloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TopTab

Treant Protector
Treant Protector
smN · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Shergarat · 2 games
50%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
Shergarat · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
smN · 1 game
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Shergarat · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
smN · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Shergarat · 1 game
0%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
smN · 1 game
0%

Night Pulse

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
JANTER · 23 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 21 game
48%
Ursa
Ursasignature
V-Tune · 19 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Kami · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 17 games
41%
Medusa
Medusasignature
V-Tune · 16 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Hduo · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
357 picks · 345 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
355 picks · 406 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
347 picks · 258 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 507 bans
49%
Sven
Sven
294 picks · 305 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
292 picks · 262 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
279 picks · 385 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
276 picks · 458 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:33
TopTab 41%Night Pulse 59%
The model gave 59% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enigma
EnigmaShergarat
61% · 113 games42% · 22 games
LunaV-Tune
Luna
Jakiro
JakirosmN
46% · 99 games62% · 9 games
Legion CommanderKami
Legion Commander
46% · 47 games
PuckWorick
Puck
39% · 66 games
ClockwerkHduo
Clockwerk
54% · 68 games
Shadow DemonJANTER
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed29:15
TopTab 44%Night Pulse 56%
The model gave 56% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by TopTab in 30:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enigma
EnigmaShergarat
60% · 101 game38% · 23 games
LunaV-Tune
Luna
Omniknight
OmniknightsmN
63% · 43 games54% · 18 games
Nature's ProphetWorick
Nature's Prophet
little data
Night StalkerKami
Night Stalker
37% · 66 games
RubickJANTER
Rubick
31% · 37 games
ClockwerkHduo
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 66%
Accuracy by game1 of 2