ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTBTOXIC BOYS SKRloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TOXIC BOYS SKR
Puckoften banned
Jeimari · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Jericho · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Greedy · 1 game
Mirana
Ztok · 1 game
Tusk
Ztok · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
Greedy · 1 game
Winter Wyvern
Jericho · 1 game
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
587 picks · 452 bans
Puck
422 picks · 906 bans
Mars
369 picks · 580 bans
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 467 bans
Snapfire
348 picks · 179 bans
Dawnbreaker
327 picks · 378 bans
Bane
317 picks · 197 bans
Ember Spirit
296 picks · 580 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 48%
Hero pool strength59% TOXIC BOYS SKR
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:31
TOXIC BOYS SKR 13%beastcoast 87%
The model gave 87% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 30:47.
Game 2prediction correct16:32
TOXIC BOYS SKR 13%beastcoast 87%
The model gave 87% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 22:47.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 87%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2