Toy Cart vs Crocodile — prediction FPB2ЗК · Dota 2

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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

TCToy Cartwin 2:0

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Crocodileloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Toy Cart

No games played over 6 months.

Crocodile

Centaur Warrunneroften banned

Irving · 2 games

Beastmasteroften banned

Irving · 1 game

Brewmasteroften banned

Irving · 1 game

100%

Dragon Knightoften banned

Irving · 1 game

Marsoften banned

Irving · 1 game

100%

Slardaroften banned

Irving · 1 game

100%

Underlord

Irving · 1 game

100%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tusk

489 picks · 627 bans

49%

Clockwerk

465 picks · 532 bans

53%

Pangolier

392 picks · 573 bans

48%

Dark Willow

380 picks · 190 bans

50%

Batrider

365 picks · 407 bans

50%

Muerta

353 picks · 264 bans

50%

Invoker

338 picks · 917 bans

50%

Beastmaster

332 picks · 690 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength51% Toy Cart

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% Toy Cart

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct38:24

Toy Cart 52%Crocodile 48%

The model gave 52% on Toy Cart — the game was taken by Toy Cart in 43:28.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo