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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Trailer Park Boyswin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Nimisterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Trailer Park Boys

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 2 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
CHYuan · 1 game
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Se · 1 game
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
423 · 1 game
0%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
NARMAN · 1 game
0%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
CHYuan · 1 game
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
eleven · 1 game
0%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
NARMAN · 1 game
0%

Team Nimister

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abat · 2 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Tino- · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 1 game
0%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Abat · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 1 game
0%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Abat · 1 game
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yowe · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
537 picks · 755 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
439 picks · 321 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
434 picks · 708 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
412 picks · 404 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
394 picks · 691 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
391 picks · 882 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
388 picks · 1035 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 513 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Team Nimister
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Nimister
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:8
Trailer Park Boys 47%Team Nimister 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Nimister — the game was taken by Trailer Park Boys in 32:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusa423
50% · 78 games52% · 174 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
Tidehuntereleven
39% · 79 games56% · 106 games
BristlebackYoungGodLevi
Bristleback
Tinker
TinkerSe
41% · 27 games50% · 78 games
EarthshakerYowe
Earthshaker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCHYuan
54% · 157 games
Ringmaster
RingmasterNARMAN
58% · 17 games
Game 2prediction correct17:38
Trailer Park Boys 49%Team Nimister 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Nimister — the game was taken by Team Nimister in 46:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling423
56% · 129 games43% · 140 games
Phantom AssassinAbat
Phantom Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCHYuan
52% · 150 games43% · 166 games
DawnbreakerTino-
Dawnbreaker
Enigma
Enigmaeleven
64% · 84 games48% · 314 games
Ember SpiritYowe
Ember Spirit
Tusk
TuskNARMAN
57% · 129 games
Jakiro
JakiroSe
47% · 128 games
Game 3prediction missed25:1
Trailer Park Boys 49%Team Nimister 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Nimister — the game was taken by Trailer Park Boys in 27:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Siren423
59% · 44 games41% · 117 games
Phantom AssassinAbat
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCHYuan
47% · 220 games53% · 263 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Mars
Marseleven
44% · 100 games47% · 236 games
Storm SpiritYowe
Storm Spirit
Mirana
MiranaSe
61% · 61 game
Tusk
TuskNARMAN
55% · 191 game
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nimister · 52%
Series resultTrailer Park Boys 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3