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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
TRocketloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Block Roar Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TRocket

Undying
Undyingoften banned
Pamplona · 7 games
29%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Pamplona · 5 games
40%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
CarJua · 3 games
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Greedy · 3 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Pamplona · 3 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Jeimari · 3 games
67%
Luna
Luna
CarJua · 3 games
33%

Block Roar Esports

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
NaoG · 6 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 3 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
0%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
50%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
d1smar · 1 game
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
NaoG · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
707 picks · 594 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 489 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1073 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
427 picks · 750 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 1009 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 361 bans
53%
Enchantress
Enchantress
373 picks · 537 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
373 picks · 202 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Block Roar Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% TRocket
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:30
TRocket 53%Block Roar Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on TRocket — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 26:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistCarJua
56% · 66 games48% · 66 games
MagnusNaoG
Magnus
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritJeimari
50% · 217 games43% · 312 games
Rubickd1smar
Rubick
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightPamplona
59% · 95 games
Game 2prediction missed18:30
TRocket 52%Block Roar Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on TRocket — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistCarJua
49% · 49 games53% · 78 games
MagnusNaoG
Magnus
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritJeimari
52% · 77 games51% · 155 games
Keeper of the Lightd1smar
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
RubickPamplona
43% · 107 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTRocket · 52%
Series resultBlock Roar Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2