Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
TRocketwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Pacific esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TRocket
Snapfire
Pamplona · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
Aretes · 5 games
Abaddonoften banned
CarJua · 3 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Greedy · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Pamplona · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Luna
CarJua · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Pacific esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
776 picks · 586 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 439 bans
Tiny
441 picks · 377 bans
Nature's Prophet
414 picks · 689 bans
Beastmaster
411 picks · 962 bans
Undying
401 picks · 588 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 207 bans
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 899 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Pacific esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% TRocket
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:39
TRocket 56%Pacific esports 44%
The model gave 56% on TRocket — the game was taken by TRocket in 27:03.
Game 2prediction correct46:22
TRocket 56%Pacific esports 44%
The model gave 56% on TRocket — the game was taken by TRocket in 28:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteTRocket · 56%
Series resultTRocket 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2