?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 13 games
62%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 10 games
40%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
kasane · 9 games
33%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 9 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 9 games
44%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 9 games
44%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 8 games
88%
Marci
Marcisignature
Timado · 8 games
63%

B8 Esports

Snapfire
Snapfire
Alexxo · 14 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 12 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
MoOz · 8 games
25%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Davai · 6 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
Sammyboy · 6 games
17%
Lina
Linaoften banned
StoneBank · 5 games
80%
Mirana
Mirana
CTOMAHEH1 · 5 games
40%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
791 picks · 545 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
570 picks · 397 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
527 picks · 569 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 436 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
445 picks · 725 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
414 picks · 802 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
407 picks · 295 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 851 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% TSM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:15
TSM 73%B8 Esports 27%
The model gave 73% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 29:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckbryle-
54% · 206 games46% · 86 games
AlchemistStoneBank
Alchemist
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordTimado
51% · 27 games52% · 218 games
Storm SpiritDendi
Storm Spirit
Death Prophet
Death Prophetkasane
48% · 153 games45% · 97 games
Night StalkerFunn1k
Night Stalker
Rubick
RubickAri
43% · 183 games49% · 99 games
PugnaCTOMAHEH1
Pugna
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
52% · 142 games59% · 211 games
DisruptorLodine
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct40:17
TSM 73%B8 Esports 27%
The model gave 73% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 34:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTimado
49% · 108 games52% · 172 games
UrsaStoneBank
Ursa
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetkasane
56% · 186 games47% · 146 games
Queen of PainDendi
Queen of Pain
Batrider
Batriderbryle-
50% · 210 games47% · 251 game
Primal BeastFunn1k
Primal Beast
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenAri
45% · 202 games57% · 294 games
MiranaLodine
Mirana
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
46% · 331 game51% · 174 games
DisruptorCTOMAHEH1
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 87%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2