ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Bammysoyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TSM
Rubick
Ari · 22 games
Beastmastersignature
kasane · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 13 games
Magnussignature
Timado · 10 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Ari · 10 games
Dark Seeroften banned
kasane · 9 games
Lycansignature
kasane · 9 games
Bammysoy
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Mo13ei · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Arms · 2 games
Tusk
Sanctified · 2 games
Void Spirit
RRL · 2 games
Weaveroften banned
BliNcc · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Arms · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Moo · 1 game
Dark Willow
Sanctified · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
229 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
228 picks · 107 bans
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
194 picks · 415 bans
Phoenix
194 picks · 257 bans
Treant Protector
193 picks · 415 bans
Earth Spirit
174 picks · 278 bans
Earthshaker
172 picks · 173 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% Bammysoy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:7
TSM 62%Bammysoy 38%
The model gave 62% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 25:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverTimado
TimbersawMo13ei
Lycankasane
MuertaSammyboy
Earth Spiritbryle-
Dragon KnightMoo
PhoenixImmersion
PugnaBliNcc
Vengeful SpiritWhitemon
TuskHusky
Game 2prediction correct33:10
TSM 61%Bammysoy 39%
The model gave 61% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 33:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinTimado
LinaMo13ei
Brewmasterkasane
BristlebackSammyboy
Pangolierbryle-
MagnusMoo
MuertaImmersion
Nature's ProphetBliNcc
TuskWhitemon
Vengeful SpiritHusky
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 71%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2