DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Entityloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TSM
Rubicksignature
Ari · 19 games
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 11 games
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 11 games
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
Rikioften banned
Ari · 10 games
Enigmaoften banned
kasane · 9 games
Lycansignature
kasane · 9 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 9 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
953 picks · 653 bans
Tiny
657 picks · 465 bans
Nature's Prophet
573 picks · 922 bans
Tusk
550 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 529 bans
Snapfire
516 picks · 340 bans
Death Prophet
494 picks · 1084 bans
Clockwerk
464 picks · 345 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 48%
Hero pool strength57% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct55:48
TSM 56%Entity 44%
The model gave 56% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 1:13:11.
Game 2prediction missed12:26
TSM 56%Entity 44%
The model gave 56% on TSM — the game was taken by Entity in 28:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2