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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 24 games
71%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 15 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 12 games
83%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 11 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 11 games
45%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 10 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
kasane · 9 games
33%

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
74%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 21 game
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 18 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 18 games
78%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 17 games
76%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 14 games
93%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1011 picks · 679 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
658 picks · 481 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
609 picks · 955 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
558 picks · 439 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
523 picks · 358 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
518 picks · 1173 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
509 picks · 365 bans
56%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
501 picks · 489 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total63% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:29
TSM 39%Evil Geniuses 61%
The model gave 61% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 39:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerTimado
38% · 68 games57% · 100 games
Templar AssassinChris Luck
Templar Assassin
Invoker
Invokerbryle-
38% · 104 games52% · 62 games
Night StalkerPakazs
Night Stalker
Lycan
Lycankasane
52% · 111 games59% · 139 games
LeshracWisper
Leshrac
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
45% · 176 games46% · 80 games
IoPanda
Io
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
53% · 94 games57% · 172 games
MarciMatthew
Marci
Game 2prediction missed25:6
TSM 46%Evil Geniuses 54%
The model gave 54% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by TSM in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTimado
49% · 196 games48% · 298 games
DoomPakazs
Doom
Death Prophet
Death Prophetkasane
47% · 346 games45% · 240 games
Shadow FiendChris Luck
Shadow Fiend
Tusk
Tuskbryle-
51% · 383 games57% · 108 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Rubick
RubickAri
52% · 585 games45% · 501 game
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Oracle
OracleWhitemon
58% · 19 games54% · 382 games
DisruptorPanda
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct29:37
TSM 42%Evil Geniuses 58%
The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 53:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
Lycankasane
49% · 77 games52% · 179 games
LeshracChris Luck
Leshrac
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbryle-
51% · 116 games55% · 178 games
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Sniper
SniperTimado
49% · 59 games55% · 98 games
SlarkPakazs
Slark
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
42% · 144 games44% · 81 game
JakiroPanda
Jakiro
Clockwerk
ClockwerkWhitemon
54% · 174 games49% · 34 games
LionMatthew
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 63%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3