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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 38 games
66%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 23 games
52%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 18 games
72%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 15 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 15 games
47%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 13 games
54%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 13 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
64%

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
66%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 28 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 24 games
58%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Chris Luck · 22 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 22 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
751 picks · 630 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
608 picks · 536 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
536 picks · 1061 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
534 picks · 1324 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1171 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
460 picks · 956 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
457 picks · 483 bans
56%
Enchantress
Enchantress
440 picks · 633 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 51%
Hero pool strength54% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total63% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:36
TSM 42%Evil Geniuses 58%
The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 36:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbryle-
51% · 111 games52% · 41 game
Anti-MagePakazs
Anti-Mage
Magnus
MagnusTimado
47% · 146 games53% · 176 games
Void SpiritChris Luck
Void Spirit
Medusa
Medusakasane
54% · 107 games48% · 31 game
BrewmasterWisper
Brewmaster
Batrider
BatriderAri
53% · 179 games53% · 214 games
TechiesPanda
Techies
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonWhitemon
49% · 73 games40% · 154 games
Skywrath MageMatthew
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction missed46:15
TSM 43%Evil Geniuses 57%
The model gave 57% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by TSM in 45:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonTimado
43% · 69 games51% · 192 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Batrider
Batriderkasane
55% · 335 games45% · 93 games
UnderlordChris Luck
Underlord
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbryle-
52% · 226 games51% · 269 games
SnapfireWisper
Snapfire
Magnus
MagnusAri
49% · 186 games56% · 255 games
TechiesPanda
Techies
Disruptor
DisruptorWhitemon
52% · 445 games44% · 452 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 63%
Accuracy by game1 of 2