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BetBoom Dacha · BO1
result vs prediction
TSMwin 1:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 46 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 27 games
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 18 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 17 games
53%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
kasane · 17 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 14 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
bryle- · 14 games
29%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
kasane · 13 games
31%

Evil Geniuses

Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Wisper · 29 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 26 games
35%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Wisper · 25 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 24 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Chris Luck · 21 game
57%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Panda · 21 game
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
409 picks · 195 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
321 picks · 470 bans
51%
Techies
Techies
285 picks · 270 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
285 picks · 468 bans
45%
Morphling
Morphling
269 picks · 510 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
264 picks · 457 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
250 picks · 448 bans
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
246 picks · 589 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 30%
Hero pool strength51% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total52% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
TSM 48%Evil Geniuses 52%
The model gave 52% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by TSM.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 52%
Series resultTSM 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1