ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KBU.USloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TSM
Banesignature
DuBu · 18 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 13 games
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 10 games
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 10 games
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
616 picks · 464 bans
Puck
431 picks · 936 bans
Snapfire
361 picks · 187 bans
Mars
358 picks · 585 bans
Dawnbreaker
350 picks · 406 bans
Dragon Knight
336 picks · 456 bans
Bane
316 picks · 196 bans
Marci
304 picks · 602 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength58% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:12
TSM 82%KBU.US 18%
The model gave 82% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 22:16.
Game 2prediction correct33:24
TSM 82%KBU.US 18%
The model gave 82% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 40:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 82%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2