Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TSM
Banesignature
DuBu · 19 games
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 12 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 9 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
nouns
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 8 games
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 7 games
Marcioften banned
Husky · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Moo · 4 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Husky · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Husky · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Gunnar · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
539 picks · 455 bans
Mars
442 picks · 682 bans
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 543 bans
Bane
395 picks · 281 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 584 bans
Puck
347 picks · 808 bans
Storm Spirit
335 picks · 542 bans
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 70%
Hero pool strength51% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:30
TSM 53%nouns 47%
The model gave 53% on TSM — the game was taken by nouns in 46:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistTimado
BloodseekerCostabile
Snapfirebryle-
BristlebackGunnar
TimbersawSabeRLight-
BeastmasterMoo
ChenDuBu
ZeusZfreeK
TinyMoonMeander
ClockwerkHusky
Game 2prediction missed6:25
TSM 56%nouns 44%
The model gave 56% on TSM — the game was taken by nouns in 20:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingTimado
LifestealerCostabile
Kunkkabryle-
LycanMoo
ViperSabeRLight-
TinyGunnar
DawnbreakerDuBu
ZeusZfreeK
TuskMoonMeander
Winter WyvernHusky
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 60%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2