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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
nounsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
bryle- · 10 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
38%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
DuBu · 8 games
63%
Marci
Marcioften banned
MoonMeander · 7 games
57%
Chen
Chenoften banned
DuBu · 6 games
33%
Mirana
Miranasignature
MoonMeander · 6 games
67%

nouns

Tusk
Tusksignature
Gunnar · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moo · 6 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
ZfreeK · 6 games
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Husky · 5 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Moo · 5 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Husky · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
356 picks · 340 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
350 picks · 333 bans
47%
Mirana
Mirana
257 picks · 250 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
236 picks · 189 bans
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
213 picks · 148 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
192 picks · 521 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
189 picks · 109 bans
47%
Silencer
Silencer
186 picks · 205 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:32
TSM 52%nouns 48%
The model gave 52% on TSM — the game was taken by nouns in 41:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracbryle-
46% · 111 games41% · 83 games
Nature's ProphetMoo
Nature's Prophet
Ursa
UrsaTimado
61% · 115 games49% · 235 games
TuskGunnar
Tusk
Marci
Marcikasane
54% · 195 games47% · 89 games
BloodseekerYamSun
Bloodseeker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
50% · 159 games50% · 200 games
RubickLelis
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
56% · 142 games47% · 115 games
PhoenixHusky
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct23:25
TSM 53%nouns 47%
The model gave 53% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 44:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbryle-
50% · 224 games42% · 108 games
Nature's ProphetMoo
Nature's Prophet
Monkey King
Monkey KingTimado
56% · 148 games49% · 166 games
Chaos KnightYamSun
Chaos Knight
Death Prophet
Death Prophetkasane
49% · 218 games50% · 222 games
TuskGunnar
Tusk
Riki
RikiAri
50% · 29 games50% · 181 game
RubickLelis
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
52% · 143 games51% · 85 games
SilencerHusky
Silencer
Game 3prediction missed27:13
TSM 50%nouns 50%
The model gave 50% on nouns — the game was taken by TSM in 50:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerTimado
52% · 42 games66% · 73 games
Naga SirenYamSun
Naga Siren
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painbryle-
52% · 83 games46% · 72 games
ViperGunnar
Viper
Broodmother
Broodmotherkasane
43% · 51 game51% · 139 games
BatriderMoo
Batrider
Snapfire
SnapfireAri
47% · 137 games45% · 89 games
PhoenixHusky
Phoenix
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenWhitemon
48% · 86 games47% · 26 games
RikiLelis
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 55%
Series resultTSM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3