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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Quincy Crewloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 18 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 12 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 11 games
82%
Tiny
Tiny
Timado · 11 games
45%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 10 games
90%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
70%

Quincy Crew

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
626 picks · 469 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
440 picks · 947 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
364 picks · 189 bans
51%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
360 picks · 420 bans
46%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 585 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
333 picks · 453 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
310 picks · 194 bans
56%
Marci
Marci
309 picks · 620 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 73%
Hero pool strength59% TSM
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total54% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:25
TSM 46%Quincy Crew 54%
The model gave 54% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 39:17.
Game 2prediction missed23:16
TSM 46%Quincy Crew 54%
The model gave 54% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by TSM in 30:59.
Game 3prediction missed22:14
TSM 46%Quincy Crew 54%
The model gave 54% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by TSM in 29:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 54%
Series resultTSM 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3