Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TSM
Banesignature
DuBu · 15 games
Weaversignature
MoonMeander · 10 games
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 8 games
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 8 games
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 6 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 6 games
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
430 picks · 262 bans
Queen of Pain
380 picks · 491 bans
Mars
349 picks · 495 bans
Weaver
342 picks · 492 bans
Kunkka
280 picks · 472 bans
Death Prophet
254 picks · 378 bans
Wraith King
249 picks · 334 bans
Grimstroke
245 picks · 173 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:14
TSM 91%simply TOOBASED 9%
The model gave 91% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 22:42.
Game 2prediction correct36:12
TSM 91%simply TOOBASED 9%
The model gave 91% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 24:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 91%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2