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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 13 games
77%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bryle- · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
bryle- · 12 games
42%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
bryle- · 10 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Timado · 10 games
50%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 9 games
89%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 9 games
44%

Talon Esports

Marci
Marcioften banned
Q · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tiny
Xepher · 15 games
40%
Bane
Bane
Hyde · 13 games
46%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 13 games
54%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 12 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 11 games
45%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Hyde · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 387 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
429 picks · 656 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
296 picks · 461 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
285 picks · 694 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 395 bans
47%
Undying
Undying
258 picks · 453 bans
56%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
254 picks · 334 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
248 picks · 836 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:46
TSM 48%Talon Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 44:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperTimado
49% · 10 games42% · 38 games
Shadow Fiend23savage
Shadow Fiend
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
48% · 101 game50% · 119 games
Doomkpii
Doom
Puck
Puckbryle-
48% · 203 games47% · 174 games
PangolierMikoto
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickMoonMeander
48% · 123 games53% · 105 games
EarthshakerQ
Earthshaker
Undying
UndyingDuBu
59% · 123 games51% · 124 games
DisruptorHyde
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed29:12
TSM 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by TSM in 38:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
48% · 126 games53% · 206 games
Lina23savage
Lina
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSabeRLight-
43% · 255 games50% · 319 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Tiny
Tinybryle-
51% · 323 games38% · 111 games
Tidehunterkpii
Tidehunter
Chen
ChenDuBu
56% · 99 games62% · 97 games
Primal BeastQ
Primal Beast
Marci
MarciMoonMeander
53% · 183 games47% · 253 games
EnchantressHyde
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2