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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 35 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 23 games
52%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 16 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 16 games
56%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
kasane · 12 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
bryle- · 12 games
25%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
kasane · 11 games
27%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
bryle- · 11 games
36%

Talon Esports

Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 20 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Oli · 18 games
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mikoto · 17 games
53%
Techies
Techiessignature
Q · 16 games
69%
Windranger
Windranger
Mikoto · 16 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Q · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 13 games
54%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Oli · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
259 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
198 picks · 407 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
195 picks · 263 bans
52%
Sven
Sven
177 picks · 253 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
171 picks · 361 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
169 picks · 313 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
166 picks · 100 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total58% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:11
TSM 46%Talon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by TSM in 30:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Night Stalker
Night StalkerTimado
52% · 25 games43% · 61 game
Phantom Assassin23savage
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkasane
59% · 152 games50% · 119 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Riki
Rikibryle-
48% · 28 games54% · 46 games
BrewmasterJabz
Brewmaster
Dazzle
DazzleWhitemon
49% · 12 games33% · 16 games
Ancient ApparitionOli
Ancient Apparition
Tusk
TuskAri
52% · 96 games43% · 71 game
Earth SpiritQ
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction missed32:22
TSM 45%Talon Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by TSM in 43:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTimado
44% · 38 games57% · 33 games
Muerta23savage
Muerta
Bristleback
Bristlebackkasane
54% · 11 games50% · 54 games
Chaos KnightJabz
Chaos Knight
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magibryle-
little data58% · 50 games
EarthshakerMikoto
Earthshaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAri
50% · 51 game38% · 13 games
WeaverQ
Weaver
Disruptor
DisruptorWhitemon
47% · 91 game47% · 41 game
Vengeful SpiritOli
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 58%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2