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Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 16 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 11 games
82%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
73%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 10 games
90%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 10 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 9 games
89%

Team Liquid

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 13 games
38%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
42%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Razor
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 11 games
73%
Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 11 games
45%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
iNSaNiA · 10 games
60%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 10 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Boxi · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
579 picks · 444 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 869 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
395 picks · 602 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
368 picks · 482 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
346 picks · 176 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
331 picks · 227 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 582 bans
45%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
294 picks · 351 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% TSM
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:35
TSM 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 53:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTimado
48% · 108 games45% · 55 games
Spectreana
Spectre
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSabeRLight-
55% · 69 games48% · 250 games
Tidehunterzai
Tidehunter
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMoonMeander
58% · 87 games48% · 152 games
Winter WyvernmiCKe
Winter Wyvern
Tiny
Tinybryle-
50% · 267 games44% · 172 games
DawnbreakeriNSaNiA
Dawnbreaker
Bane
BaneDuBu
58% · 209 games48% · 111 games
MarciBoxi
Marci
Game 2prediction correct39:38
TSM 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 1:02:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTimado
51% · 86 games41% · 38 games
Pudgeana
Pudge
Puck
Puckbryle-
56% · 211 games58% · 165 games
Beastmasterzai
Beastmaster
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSabeRLight-
little data47% · 114 games
Night StalkermiCKe
Night Stalker
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernDuBu
50% · 103 games39% · 139 games
Skywrath MageBoxi
Skywrath Mage
Monkey King
Monkey KingMoonMeander
55% · 157 games47% · 101 game
MarciiNSaNiA
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 58%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2