?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Tiny
Tiny
Timado · 15 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 13 games
77%
Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 12 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
bryle- · 12 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 11 games
73%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 10 games
90%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Timado · 10 games
50%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
35%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 19 games
53%
Razor
Razorsignature
zai · 15 games
67%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Boxi · 14 games
57%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zai · 13 games
54%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
740 picks · 560 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
526 picks · 1055 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
461 picks · 595 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
429 picks · 772 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 197 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
363 picks · 395 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
322 picks · 368 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
319 picks · 626 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 31%
Hero pool strength56% TSM
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total65% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:36
TSM 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 58:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painbryle-
49% · 181 game53% · 144 games
InvokermiCKe
Invoker
Ursa
UrsaTimado
47% · 76 games56% · 183 games
Monkey KingMATUMBAMAN
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
55% · 124 games48% · 9 games
TechiesBoxi
Techies
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMoonMeander
52% · 56 games39% · 40 games
Axezai
Axe
Undying
UndyingDuBu
51% · 47 games45% · 108 games
Ogre MagiiNSaNiA
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed5:29
TSM 60%Team Liquid 40%
The model gave 60% on TSM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
50% · 94 games49% · 23 games
SlarkMATUMBAMAN
Slark
Batrider
Batriderbryle-
48% · 130 games48% · 237 games
TinymiCKe
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
46% · 43 games50% · 105 games
DawnbreakerBoxi
Dawnbreaker
Rubick
RubickMoonMeander
46% · 123 games59% · 33 games
Elder Titanzai
Elder Titan
Warlock
WarlockDuBu
57% · 77 games53% · 69 games
AbaddoniNSaNiA
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 65%
Accuracy by game1 of 2