Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TSM
Rubick
Ari · 46 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 26 games
Lycansignature
kasane · 18 games
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 16 games
Batridersignature
Ari · 15 games
Disruptor
Whitemon · 15 games
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 15 games
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 13 games
Team Secret
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 18 games
Snapfire
Armel · 15 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Armel · 12 games
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 12 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
639 picks · 689 bans
Rubick
510 picks · 332 bans
Doom
453 picks · 975 bans
Batrider
411 picks · 930 bans
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 861 bans
Void Spirit
391 picks · 352 bans
Beastmaster
384 picks · 1003 bans
Pugna
381 picks · 448 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 24%
Hero pool strength56% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:27
TSM 52%Team Secret 48%
The model gave 52% on TSM — the game was taken by Team Secret in 33:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfirebryle-
UrsaCrystallis
Underlordkasane
WindrangerArmel
ChenWhitemon
Primal BeastFbz
MorphlingTimado
Batrideryamich
RubickAri
Elder TitanPuppey
Game 2prediction missed9:21
TSM 55%Team Secret 45%
The model gave 55% on TSM — the game was taken by Team Secret in 25:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spiritbryle-
LifestealerCrystallis
BloodseekerTimado
TinyArmel
Tidehunterkasane
Primal BeastFbz
TechiesAri
Batrideryamich
IoWhitemon
EnchantressPuppey
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 55%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2