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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 35 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 23 games
52%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 16 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 16 games
56%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
kasane · 12 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
bryle- · 12 games
25%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
kasane · 11 games
27%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
bryle- · 11 games
36%

Tundra Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 27 games
70%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 26 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 26 games
46%
Techies
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 25 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
33 · 19 games
53%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Skiter · 18 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Nine · 18 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
257 picks · 133 bans
43%
Pangolier
Pangolier
189 picks · 384 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
181 picks · 257 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
169 picks · 351 bans
50%
Sven
Sven
169 picks · 247 bans
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
168 picks · 303 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 226 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
161 picks · 95 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total72% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:29
TSM 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 23:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidkasane
56% · 25 games42% · 54 games
Earth SpiritTopson
Earth Spirit
Zeus
Zeusbryle-
39% · 47 games52% · 163 games
Naga SirenSkiter
Naga Siren
Pudge
PudgeTimado
59% · 44 games46% · 98 games
Dawnbreaker33
Dawnbreaker
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
59% · 99 games47% · 43 games
GrimstrokeNine
Grimstroke
Tusk
TuskAri
49% · 170 games47% · 27 games
WarlockSneyking
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct19:27
TSM 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTimado
51% · 19 games65% · 45 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Bristleback
Bristlebackkasane
little data30% · 6 games
ClinkzTopson
Clinkz
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritbryle-
44% · 41 game45% · 66 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
50% · 49 games41% · 59 games
Spirit BreakerNine
Spirit Breaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAri
51% · 102 games53% · 35 games
GrimstrokeSneyking
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 72%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2