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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 14 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 10 games
40%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
kasane · 9 games
33%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 9 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 9 games
44%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 9 games
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 8 games
88%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 8 games
88%

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
Sammyboy · 12 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
FrancisLee · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Babitich · 9 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Sammyboy · 8 games
25%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Sunlight · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Sunlight · 6 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
FrancisLee · 6 games
17%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Babitich · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
808 picks · 571 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
586 picks · 400 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 550 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
510 picks · 418 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
477 picks · 764 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
425 picks · 873 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
422 picks · 305 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
369 picks · 279 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 30%
Hero pool strength54% TSM
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total80% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:5
TSM 67%Wildcard Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 23:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkasane
57% · 161 game41% · 206 games
MarsLil_Nick
Mars
Leshrac
Leshracbryle-
56% · 141 game41% · 32 games
Outworld DestroyerYawaR
Outworld Destroyer
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTimado
52% · 94 games43% · 309 games
SnapfireSammyboy
Snapfire
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAri
49% · 101 game57% · 86 games
IoMSS
Io
Disruptor
DisruptorWhitemon
57% · 136 games
Game 2prediction missed33:26
TSM 68%Wildcard Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on TSM — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 39:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperTimado
53% · 64 games57% · 387 games
Nature's ProphetYawaR
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbryle-
47% · 267 games51% · 161 game
VisageLil_Nick
Visage
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkasane
48% · 228 games49% · 287 games
Primal BeastMSS
Primal Beast
Rubick
RubickAri
43% · 376 games52% · 434 games
ClockwerkSammyboy
Clockwerk
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
48% · 334 games
Game 3prediction correct28:9
TSM 68%Wildcard Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 25:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistTimado
46% · 56 games45% · 96 games
Drow RangerYawaR
Drow Ranger
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkasane
50% · 232 games60% · 109 games
VisageLil_Nick
Visage
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbryle-
47% · 108 games54% · 241 game
UndyingMSS
Undying
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
49% · 29 games48% · 299 games
ClockwerkSammyboy
Clockwerk
Rubick
RubickAri
46% · 320 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 80%
Series resultTSM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3