PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTATT Academyloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team NextUpwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TT Academy
No games played over 6 months.
Team NextUp
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 9 games
Batridersignature
VaniLLl · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Petushara · 5 games
Razoroften banned
Miyaoo · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
410 picks · 658 bans
Mars
388 picks · 621 bans
Lion
386 picks · 359 bans
Techies
385 picks · 312 bans
Batrider
369 picks · 802 bans
Tiny
366 picks · 423 bans
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 357 bans
Hoodwink
339 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% TT Academy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team NextUp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:12
TT Academy 47%Team NextUp 53%
The model gave 53% on Team NextUp — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 30:31.
Game 2prediction correct
TT Academy 47%Team NextUp 53%
The model gave 53% on Team NextUp — the game was taken by Team NextUp.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam NextUp · 53%
Series resultTeam NextUp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2