PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TT InfinBankloss 1:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:2
One Movewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TT InfinBank
No games played over 6 months.
One Move
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 12 games
Marsoften banned
SSS · 12 games
Jakiro
Rein · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 10 games
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
418 picks · 315 bans
Hoodwink
417 picks · 440 bans
Weaver
393 picks · 824 bans
Tiny
392 picks · 885 bans
Phoenix
362 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 514 bans
Clockwerk
350 picks · 484 bans
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% TT InfinBank
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:40
TT InfinBank 19%One Move 81%
The model gave 81% on One Move — the game was taken by TT InfinBank in 39:23.
Game 2prediction correct47:18
TT InfinBank 19%One Move 81%
The model gave 81% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 39:51.
Game 3prediction correct26:49
TT InfinBank 19%One Move 81%
The model gave 81% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 36:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 81%
Series resultOne Move 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3