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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1w Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 33 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 32 games
72%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 28 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 28 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 27 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 26 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
bzm · 24 games
67%

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 34 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 30 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 30 games
37%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 26 games
46%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
Squad1x · 21 game
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
мистер мораль · 20 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
508 picks · 275 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
481 picks · 563 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
442 picks · 347 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 351 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
377 picks · 327 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
348 picks · 832 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 839 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
329 picks · 175 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed0:0
Tundra Esports 74%1w Team 26%
The model gave 74% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by 1w Team in 44:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
51% · 186 games58% · 19 games
Lone Druidv1olent-
Lone Druid
Ursa
UrsaPure~
47% · 200 games55% · 377 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
46% · 322 games45% · 180 games
Underlordмистер мораль
Underlord
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAri
48% · 85 games54% · 108 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Techies
TechiesWhitemon
46% · 59 games54% · 168 games
PugnaRein
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct0:0
Tundra Esports 75%1w Team 25%
The model gave 75% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death Prophetbzm
42% · 52 games53% · 72 games
Lifestealerv1olent-
Lifestealer
Largo
Largo33
55% · 120 games51% · 146 games
Bristlebackмистер мораль
Bristleback
Muerta
MuertaPure~
50% · 212 games51% · 140 games
Queen of PainSquad1x
Queen of Pain
Techies
TechiesWhitemon
45% · 104 games53% · 307 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickAri
50% · 279 games49% · 102 games
EnchantressRein
Enchantress
Game 3prediction missed18:43
Tundra Esports 77%1w Team 23%
The model gave 77% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by 1w Team in 48:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyPure~
49% · 478 games44% · 269 games
Bristlebackv1olent-
Bristleback
Lycan
Lycan33
57% · 125 games48% · 422 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Huskar
Huskarbzm
58% · 104 games44% · 223 games
Underlordмистер мораль
Underlord
Batrider
BatriderAri
50% · 408 games55% · 177 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
52% · 323 games45% · 347 games
DisruptorRein
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 90%
Series result1w Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3