Tundra Esports vs Amaru Gaming — prediction DS 27 · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3

result vs prediction

Tundra Esportswin 2:0

series probability

99%1%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Amaru Gamingloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Axesignature

33 · 37 games

65%

Banesignature

Whitemon · 29 games

72%

Batrideroften banned

Ari · 29 games

59%

Pugna

Whitemon · 28 games

54%

Invokersignature

bzm · 25 games

60%

Abaddonsignature

Pure~ · 23 games

61%

Tiny

Saksa · 19 games

58%

Tusk

Saksa · 19 games

58%

Amaru Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Snapfire

771 picks · 354 bans

53%

Hoodwink

580 picks · 299 bans

52%

Disruptor

551 picks · 550 bans

52%

Jakiro

535 picks · 407 bans

48%

Dragon Knight

520 picks · 633 bans

50%

Tusk

492 picks · 292 bans

52%

Mars

474 picks · 743 bans

51%

Centaur Warrunner

460 picks · 517 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)69% vs 50%

Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total99% Tundra Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct25:6

Tundra Esports 86%Amaru Gaming 14%

The model gave 86% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 21:43.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo