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ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AS Monaco Gambitwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 15 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sneyking · 12 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 10 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Sneyking · 9 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 8 games
88%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fata · 6 games
67%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Skiter · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Nine · 6 games
67%

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
25%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
411 picks · 200 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 586 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 893 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 204 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
353 picks · 336 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 228 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 384 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
262 picks · 351 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 39%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:26
Tundra Esports 69%AS Monaco Gambit 31%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 38:48.
Game 2prediction missed12:31
Tundra Esports 69%AS Monaco Gambit 31%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 42:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 69%
Series resultAS Monaco Gambit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2