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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:1
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Aurora Gamingwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 21 game
57%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 19 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
56%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
56%

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 33 games
48%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 33 games
45%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 32 games
66%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 26 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 26 games
69%
Puck
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 24 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
600 picks · 299 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
522 picks · 526 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
392 picks · 1079 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
355 picks · 185 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 587 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
346 picks · 391 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
345 picks · 156 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
336 picks · 259 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total82% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:43
Tundra Esports 68%Aurora Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:00:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonPure~
48% · 192 games49% · 142 games
MedusaNightfall
Medusa
Invoker
Invokerbzm
51% · 200 games46% · 323 games
PangolierMikoto
Pangolier
Sand King
Sand King33
51% · 182 games52% · 100 games
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
Undying
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterAri
51% · 58 games57% · 99 games
Naga SirenOli
Naga Siren
Disruptor
DisruptorWhitemon
48% · 238 games49% · 206 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 82%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1