DreamLeague Season 28 · BO5
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 3:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Batridersignature
Ari · 36 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 28 games
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 25 games
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 22 games
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 22 games
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
Aurora Gaming
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 46 games
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 43 games
Marssignature
Ws · 43 games
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 36 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 32 games
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 32 games
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 29 games
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 29 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
613 picks · 963 bans
Tusk
503 picks · 442 bans
Tiny
462 picks · 506 bans
Warlock
445 picks · 291 bans
Shadow Demon
435 picks · 1062 bans
Centaur Warrunner
429 picks · 604 bans
Mars
407 picks · 578 bans
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 688 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 75%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total50% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:11
Tundra Esports 50%Aurora Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaPure~
UrsaNightfall
Beastmasterbzm
SniperLorenof
Viper33
BristlebackWs
ChenWhitemon
HoodwinkMira
Shadow ShamanAri
JakiroKaori
Game 2prediction missed28:6
Tundra Esports 50%Aurora Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinPure~
Shadow FiendNightfall
Largo33
DoomWs
Tinybzm
Storm SpiritLorenof
JakiroWhitemon
WarlockKaori
Keeper of the LightAri
Shadow ShamanMira
Game 3prediction correct8:37
Tundra Esports 49%Aurora Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaPure~
Faceless VoidNightfall
Void Spiritbzm
Storm SpiritLorenof
Batrider33
MarsWs
Shadow ShamanAri
TinyMira
WarlockWhitemon
PhoenixKaori
Game 4prediction missed32:31
Tundra Esports 48%Aurora Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinkerbzm
AbaddonNightfall
MuertaPure~
ViperLorenof
Brewmaster33
Centaur WarrunnerWs
HoodwinkAri
PhoenixKaori
JakiroWhitemon
Shadow ShamanMira
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 50%
Series resultTundra Esports 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 4