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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 43 games
72%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 34 games
82%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
72%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 27 games
74%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 26 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 25 games
52%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 25 games
72%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 25 games
76%

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 50 games
46%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 23 games
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
dEsire · 22 games
64%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 20 games
40%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 20 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 18 games
39%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 18 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mo13ei · 18 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
570 picks · 643 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
490 picks · 249 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
472 picks · 424 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
405 picks · 857 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
392 picks · 444 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
384 picks · 568 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 336 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
357 picks · 835 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 35%
Hero pool strength64% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total95% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:21
Tundra Esports 80%AVULUS 20%
The model gave 80% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaCrystallis
46% · 182 games54% · 95 games
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
Templar Assassin
Huskar
Huskarbzm
55% · 44 games54% · 251 game
TinyMo13ei
Tiny
Axe
Axe33
33% · 52 games58% · 96 games
EnigmaXibbe
Enigma
Rubick
RubickWhitemon
54% · 234 games49% · 59 games
EarthshakerdEsire
Earthshaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSaksa
41% · 175 games52% · 186 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct28:11
Tundra Esports 82%AVULUS 18%
The model gave 82% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenCrystallis
50% · 279 games45% · 158 games
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
50% · 317 games41% · 62 games
Queen of PainMo13ei
Queen of Pain
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
53% · 164 games50% · 198 games
Dark SeerXibbe
Dark Seer
Axe
AxeSaksa
49% · 31 game53% · 169 games
ClockwerkdEsire
Clockwerk
Oracle
OracleWhitemon
58% · 44 games51% · 248 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 95%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2